SEVERAL times during the last two years the threat of an outbreak of the third world war in the near future seemed to loom. Impressionist commentators did not hesitate to draw this conclusion. A panic wave in fact arose, particularly in certain intellectual circles. The powerful and promising anti-war moverent, which is growing today in the imperialist countries, was also at least partially affectod. The number of publications about a third world war already begun, underway, or on the point of ending, countless (1).
The actual events are not unimportant in creating this panic wave. In June 1982 we saw: the re-opening of the Iran-Irag war, the Malvinas war, the preparations for the Israeli invasion Lebanon, the growing foreign intervention in the civil war in El Salvador - without even mentioning the more or less forgotten "little' wars. There are those in Chad, Entrea, Namibia, Western Sahara, not counting the civil war in Angola Mozambique, and even this list is not exhaustive. But to conclude that the flames of world conflagration are on us is irresponsible.
is more determined than ever to employ its revolutionary violence against every TEVO OREY COvaCe me word This takes the form of systematic armed intervention; sometimes disguised as support to one of the sides in a civil war, at other times an OCH MENSVC TOOISETCCaEO The world imperialist system is decomposing in the throes of a profound crisis. Revolutionary flagrations have been erupting one after the other for -OVC century, with no end in sight. Thus, the main danger of war lies in these EELC US foreign interventions against revolutions in progress.
For the last decades the great majority of wars have been of this type. It is the same today. It will be same tomorrow.
This is not in the least a new onenomenon. In fact, since the intervention against Soviet Russia 1918-22, been triumphant, or on the road to important victories, has had to confront a counter-revolutionary from outside.
The scope of some of these wars was much greater than the Malvinas war or the present imperialist in ervention in Central America The fact is not "localised' counter-revolutionary wars. They are the rule. The new factor is "that represented by the Nicaraguan and Iranian revolutions. There, at least at the moment of the fall of Somoza and of the Shah, imperialism found itself, not materially or militarily, but politically incapable intervening because of' the repercussions of the defeat it suffered in Indochina in 1975.
But this paralysis was short-lived. The Malvinas war, the invasion of Lebanon, the imperialist intervention into Central America, and rather more ambiguously, the Iran-Iraq war, are far from representing a new 'international situation', or bringing us to the threshold of the third world war. Rather they represent a 'return to normstinate attempt of in peritim ic mal'. That systematic, pit its counter-revolutionary strength against cach new advance of revolution.
The two world wars which broke out in 1914 and 1939 were different from this almost uninterrupted chain of localised wars which punctuate the Socialist Challenge 26 November 1982 page 6 hisorical period since the Russian revolution. These wars proved the inability of imperialism to ensure peace for humanity. This, in fact, is one of the most important reasons for ridding outselves of this system which manates the most barbarous violence through all its pores. The third world war would be still more different.
The fact that the third world war will be, in all probability, a nuclear war only emphasises all the more the importance of this distinction. It gives it ail the more weight.
It would be absurd to argue that the development of a nuclear arsenal capable of destroying at least twenty are times the present population of the world changes nothing "fundamental" in the 'nature of the world war" that this will pose the 'identical tactical and strategic problems for the proletariat tionaries as the First World Wars. of Considerable human TEEUHCAEOESOETCES are build a classiess society. It will not be socialism that arises from the nuclear ashes, but a planet predominant life will be grasses and the insects or, in the "best" alternative, a barbarous human society from which and the survivors of the holocaust will move jorward m an centuries-long ascent. The communist project would anyway be completely cut off from reality for a long period It flows from this that the strategic aim of the world workers and revolutionary movement must be to prevent the world nuclear war and not to 'win" it (whatever this might mean). That is, to explain this more precisely everything possible to assure that the progress of the paralyses imperialism's ability to intervene with nuclear weapons, and to prepare the way for its nuclear disarmament by defcating HUWEL COT- However, as long as imperialism retains political power, half- and material power in the key countries, it would be utopian to think that the 'localised" counter-revolutionary interventions by imperialism can be prevented. possible within the imperialist fortress that have nuclear weapons and not the outside them. Only American, British, French, German, Japanse proletariat (Supported by the Chinese and Soviet proletariat) can defuse the nuclear and remove them once and for all from the face of the earth.
To think anything else is to believe in miracles which will not happen: that the imperialists will always be intelligent or afraid or demoralised enough not to use their weapons of despair even though they keep these power to do so.
Its a fact that, despite the development of a more and more terrifying arsenal of nuclear weapons over the last thirty years, they have not been used until now. However, the number of "local' wars has been growing and more and more sophisticated and murderous conventional have in fact been used in them. reason for this difference seems obvious. Those who possess nuclear weapons and can decide wether to use them know perfectly well their suicidal meaning for humanity. The general public can be fooled with the monstrous talk of nuclear wars which will 'only" cost some hundreds of millions dead and that those who have nucicar shelters will survive*. Those in power are hot duped.
It is true that one of the partly rationa!" objectives of the mad nuclear arms race is the frantic nuclear weapons so 'small' 'clean' that their "tactical" use "localised" wars would be possible without automatically nuclear world wer. hypothesis cannot be totally excluded and revoluand Second and needed on which the - to do revolution its political and military only the North weapons;